ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS OF THE RANDOM ERROR PROBABILITY

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23 июл 2021

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ASSESSMENT ANALYSIS OF THE RANDOM ERROR PROBABILITY

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The article discusses options for probabilistic estimates of random error. It is shown that for the quantitative assessment of random errors and the establishment of the boundaries of these errors, the limiting error, interval estimation, and numerical characteristics of the distribution law are used. The methods of probability theory and mathematical statistics are presented allowing to establish the probabilistic patterns of the random error occurrence and based on these patterns to determine quantitative estimates of the measurement result and its random error. The choice of a specific assessment is obtained, which is determined by the necessary completeness of information on errors, purpose of measurements and nature of the use of their results. An exponential and heavy tail analysis method is presented to study the effect of systematic and random errors presented in thermodynamic data on chemical process design and simulation. Different error types such as random and systematic error can potentially cause different effects in the behavior of probability distributions, particularly in the tails. In this work, we use the tail behavior of cumulative frequency distributions produced from uncertainty analyses to characterize the error propagation in process design and simulation. The diminishing rate of the tail of a given distribution can be related to the error types involved in the process and also can be used to determine which error exhibits stochastic dominance.

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Teglar

# mathematical expectation# dispersion boundaries# marginal error# interval estimation# numerical characteristics# confidence interval# confidence probability# quantile estimation# confidence boundaries# consistent estimation

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ROI:

https://eroi.uz/11.0008/A0721-0033

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