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ИҚЛИМ ЎЗГАРИШИ ШАРОИТИДА ЧИРЧИҚ ҲАВЗАСИ ОҚИМ ДИНАМИКАСИНИНГ УЗОҚ МУДДАТЛИ ПРОГНОЗИ

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MAQOLA ANNOTATSIYASI

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Ўтмиш ва келажакдаги иқлимий фарқларнинг дарё ҳавзалари оқим динамикасига таъсирини баҳолаш келажакда дарё ҳавзалари учун барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлигини таъминлаш, шунингдек, иқлим ўзгаришининг экология ва атроф-муҳитга таъсирини камайтиришда муҳим аҳамият касб этади. Ушбу ҳолат бир неча соҳаларда: технология, инфратузилма, сиёсат, иқтисодиёт, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш бўйича шошилинч ва келишилган ҳаракатларни талаб этади. Мақолада дельта ёндашув усули ёрдамида 2030, 2050 ва 2070 йилларда глобал циркуляцияси модели (GCM)ни мувофиқлаштириш сценарийлари, RCP4.5 ва RCP8.5 асосида ёғингарчилик интенсивлиги ўзгаришларнинг Чирчиқ дарёси оқими динамикасига таъсири баҳоланди. Тадқиқот натижаларида Чирчиқ ҳавзасида яқин ва узоқ келажак учун оқим динамикаси ўзгаришларига аниқ далиллар келтирилган. Мазкур тадқиқот иқлим ўзгаришига жавобан Чирчиқ ҳавзасида барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлиги ва озиқ-овқат хавфсизлигини таъминлаш, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш, жамиятнинг ижтимоий даражасини яхшилашда, сув ресурсларини оператив бошқариш механизмини ишлаб чиқиш ва иқтисодий барқарорликни таъминлашга эришишда фойдали маълумот бўлиб хизмат қилади.

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# water resources# сув ресурслари# climate change# иқлим ўзгариши# изменение климата# Чирчиқ ҳавзаси# GCM# RCP# дельта ёндашув# бассейн Чирчик# водные ресурсы# дельта-подход# the Chirchik basin# delta approach

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