SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGE OF ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KARAKALPAKSTAN

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SPATIOTEMPORAL CHANGE OF ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE IN KARAKALPAKSTAN

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MAQOLA ANNOTATSIYASI

Annotatsiya. Iqlim o’zgarishi ekstremal havo harorati, suv toshqinlari, qurg’oqchilik, shiddatli tropik siklonlar va dengiz sathining ko’tarilishiga ta’sir qiluvchi uzoq muddatli muammodir. Iqlim o’zgarishining ekotizimga bo’lgan ta’sirining yo’nalishini aniqlash uchun eng muhim meteorologik o’zgaruvchilarning (masalan - havo harorati, uning o’rtacha, maksimum va minimum qiymatlari) uzoq yillik o’zgarish tendensiyalarini, shu bilan birgalikda ularning ekotizimga bo’lgan birgalikdagi ta’sirini aniqlash zarur. Mazkur tadqiqotda Qoraqalpog’istondagi 10 ta meteostansiyada qayd qilingan oylik maksimal mutlaq havo harorati tendensiyalari va keskin o’zgarish nuqtalari mos ravishda Mann-Kendall tendensiyani aniqlash va Mann-Kendall keskin o’zgarish nuqtasini aniqlash metodlari orqali aniqlandi. XXI asrning 2-o’n yilligida 10 ta meteostansiyaning 6 tasida yillik maksimal mutlaq havo haroratining keskin o’zgargani aniqlandi. Yillik maksimal mutlaq havo haroratining sezilarli o’sish tendensiyasi Mo’ynoq (Z=0.56) va Shoh-Sanam (Z=-0.33) meteostansiyalardan boshqa barcha meteostansiyalarda kuzatildi. Mann-Kendall keskin o’zgarish nuqtasini aniqlash metodiga ko’ra, barcha meteostansiyalarning o’rtacha fazoviy interpolyatsiya qilingan oylik mutlaq maksimal havo harorati 2014-yilda keskin o’zgarganligini ko’rsatdi. Mazkur natijaga ko’ra o’rganilish davri ikki qismga bo’linganda, barcha meteostansiyalardagi oylik mutlaq maksimal havo haroratining fazoviy interpolyatsiya qilingan o’rtacha qiymatlari ikkinchi davrda (2014-2022) birinchi davrdagiga (1975-2013) qaraganda sezilarli o’sish tendensiyasini ko’rsatdi va ikkinchi davrdagi mazkur o’sish tendensiyasi Qoraqalpog’istonning Shimoliy-g’arbiy va g’arbiy qismlarida kuzatildi.

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# Keywords: Absolute maximum tempe# trend analyses# abrupt point change analyses# Mann-Kendall test.# Kalit so’zlar: Mutlaq maksimal h# tendensiya tahlillari# keskin o’zgarish nuqtasi tahlill# Mann-Kendall testi..# Ключевые слова: Aбсолютная макси# анализ тенденций# анализ резкого изменения точки# критерий Манна-Кендалла..

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