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THE ROLE OF ECONOMIC INDEXES IN MODELING INFLATION EXPECTATIONS ERROR

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Inflation expectations error have significant implications for macroeconomic stability, influencing policy effectiveness and market efficiency. This study examines the relationship between key economic indexes — import prices, industrial price indexes, and inflation anchoring metricsand inflation expectation error. By employing a DCC-GARCH model, the study captures the dynamic conditional correlations between these indexes and inflation forecast deviations. The findings highlight the importance of economic indicators in improving inflation predictability while emphasizing the behavioral component of expectation formation.

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# monetary policy# behavioral economics# Inflation expectations error# economic indexes# DCC-GARCH# import prices# industrial price index

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Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar

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