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ECONOMETRIC MODELING AND FORECASTING OF DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS OF TOURISM ENTERPRISES IN UZBEKISTAN

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MAQOLA ANNOTATSIYASI

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This study aims to develop a comprehensive multivariate econometric model for analyzing and forecasting tourism revenue in Uzbekistan. Given the sector’s growing role in the national economy, an evidence-based understanding of key drivers such as tourism value-added, inbound tourist arrivals, investment volume, and the number of tourism-related enterprises is essential. Annual data from 2014 to 2024 were used to construct a log-linear regression model in EViews 12. The model addresses scale heterogeneity among explanatory variables and ensures statistical robustness. The selected predictors include tourism gross value added, number of inbound tourists, investment volume, and active tourism enterprises. The model demonstrates strong explanatory power with an R² of 0.9554 and a Durbin-Watson statistic close to 2, indicating minimal autocorrelation. Forecasts for 2025–2029 suggest steady tourism revenue growth, driven by synchronized increases in investment and entrepreneurial activity within the sector. The findings provide a reliable basis for medium-term tourism policy design and resource allocation. The proposed modeling framework also offers a replicable approach for other emerging economies aiming to strengthen tourism-led economic development and enrich empirical literature on tourism economics

MUALIFLAR

Y.Sultanova

Kokand University

Teglar

# Uzbekistan# forecasting# entrepreneurship# econometric modeling# tourism revenue# log-linear regression

Maqolani baholang

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Maqola idintifikatorlari

Foydalanilgan adabiyotlar

Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305–316. https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000041895094

Soukiazis, E., & Proença, S. (2007b). Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels. Portuguese Economic Journal, 7(1), 43–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-007-0022-0

Song, H., & Li, G. (2007). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016

Seetanah, B. (2010). Assessing the dynamic economic impact of tourism for island economies. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 291–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.08.009

Safarov, B., Al-Smadi, H. M., Buzrukova, M., Janzakov, B., Ilieş, A., Grama, V., Ilieș, D. C., Vargáné, K. C., & Dávid, L. D. (2022). Forecasting the volume of tourism services in Uzbekistan. Sustainability, 14(13), 7762. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137762

Alberca, P., & Santos, J. (2020). Improving efficiency evaluation in tourism Analysis: weight restrictions models and value judgments. Tourism Analysis, 26(1), 11–18. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354220x15951158731568

Sultonova, Y. (2023). Kichik biznesni rivojlantirish va uning infratuzilmasini qo'llab-quvvatlashni o‘rganishning nazariy va uslubiy asoslari. Yosh Tadqiqotchi Jurnali, 2(2), 101-104

Sultonova, K. Y. (2023). Matematikani zamonaviy iqtisodiyotdagi o‘rni. Interpretation and researches, 1(8)

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2024). O‘zbekistonda turizm bozorini diversifikatsiya qilishda smart mutaxasislik o‘rni. University Research Base, 529-532.

Yulduzxon, S. (2022). Six key principles for effective teaching of mathematics: Six key principles for effective teaching of mathematics. Qo‘qon universitetining ilmiy materiallar bazasi, 1(000006)

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2023). Turistik mahsulotlar va xizmatlar mohiyatiga yondashuvlar va ularni diversifikatsiyalash jarayonining nazariyuslubiy jihatlari. Qo‘qon universiteti xabarnomasi, 358-362

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2022). Tadbirkorlik faoliyatida ishlab chiqarishni klaster usulida tashkil etish va boshqarish. Yosh Tadqiqotchi Jurnali, 1(5), 309-314

Sultonova, K. Y. (2023). Matematikani zamonaviy Iqtisodiyotdagi o‘rni. Interpretation and researches, 1(8)

Dritsakis, N. (2004). Tourism as a Long-Run Economic Growth Factor: An Empirical Investigation for Greece using Causality analysis. Tourism Economics, 10(3), 305–316. https://doi.org/10.5367/0000000041895094

Soukiazis, E., & Proença, S. (2007b). Tourism as an alternative source of regional growth in Portugal: a panel data analysis at NUTS II and III levels. Portuguese Economic Journal, 7(1), 43–61. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10258-007-0022-0

Song, H., & Li, G. (2007). Tourism demand modelling and forecasting—A review of recent research. Tourism Management, 29(2), 203–220. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tourman.2007.07.016

Seetanah, B. (2010). Assessing the dynamic economic impact of tourism for island economies. Annals of Tourism Research, 38(1), 291–308. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annals.2010.08.009

Safarov, B., Al-Smadi, H. M., Buzrukova, M., Janzakov, B., Ilieş, A., Grama, V., Ilieș, D. C., Vargáné, K. C., & Dávid, L. D. (2022). Forecasting the volume of tourism services in Uzbekistan. Sustainability, 14(13), 7762. https://doi.org/10.3390/su14137762

Alberca, P., & Santos, J. (2020). Improving efficiency evaluation in tourism Analysis: weight restrictions models and value judgments. Tourism Analysis, 26(1), 11–18. https://doi.org/10.3727/108354220x15951158731568

Sultonova, Y. (2023). Kichik biznesni rivojlantirish va uning infratuzilmasini qo'llab-quvvatlashni o‘rganishning nazariy va uslubiy asoslari. Yosh Tadqiqotchi Jurnali, 2(2), 101-104

Sultonova, K. Y. (2023). Matematikani zamonaviy iqtisodiyotdagi o‘rni. Interpretation and researches, 1(8)

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2024). O‘zbekistonda turizm bozorini diversifikatsiya qilishda smart mutaxasislik o‘rni. University Research Base, 529-532.

Yulduzxon, S. (2022). Six key principles for effective teaching of mathematics: Six key principles for effective teaching of mathematics. Qo‘qon universitetining ilmiy materiallar bazasi, 1(000006)

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2023). Turistik mahsulotlar va xizmatlar mohiyatiga yondashuvlar va ularni diversifikatsiyalash jarayonining nazariyuslubiy jihatlari. Qo‘qon universiteti xabarnomasi, 358-362

Kamoldinovna, S. Y. (2022). Tadbirkorlik faoliyatida ishlab chiqarishni klaster usulida tashkil etish va boshqarish. Yosh Tadqiqotchi Jurnali, 1(5), 309-314

Sultonova, K. Y. (2023). Matematikani zamonaviy Iqtisodiyotdagi o‘rni. Interpretation and researches, 1(8)

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