Climatic conditions are a major factor in the formation of water resources in the Amudarya river basin. Water resources are of paramount practical importance in irrigation. Low-water years 2000-2001, caused enormous damage to the agriculture of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Particularly, severely, drought suffered from rural residents lost real income in modern conditions. If there were long-term methods for forecasting the flow of the Amudarya river for the growing season, then we could have mitigated the effects of drought.