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SCENARIO ECONOMETRIC FORECASTS OF EXPORT DYNAMICS OF THE REPUBLIC OF UZBEKISTAN BASED ON A VECTOR ERROR CORRECTION MODEL

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ARTICLE ANNOTATION

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The paper presents a systematic review of the literature on modeling export dynamics based on vector autoregressions, as well as the results of econometric modeling and scenario-based forecasts of export dynamics of the Republic of Uzbekistan based on a vector error correction model. In conclusion, recommendations are provided to ensure an increase in the volume of exports of the republic, taking into account external risks and internal macroeconomic factors.

AUTHORS

M.Turdibaeva

Тошкентдаги халқаро вестминстер университети

Tags

# экспорт# export# векторли авторегрессия# хатоларни тузатиш модели# макроиқтисодий ўзгарувчилар# сценар прогнозлар.# векторная авторегрессия# модель коррекции ошибок# макроэкономические переменные# сценарные прогнозы.# vector autoregression# error correction model# macroeconomic variables# scenario forecasts.

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Article Identifiers

ROI:

https://eroi.uz/11.0183/A0524-0422

DOI:

Not Available

References

Abdurakhmanova G., Jeong J., Oqmullayev R., Karimov M. (2021). The Impact of Tourism on Employment and Economic Growth in Uzbekistan: An ARDL bounds testing approach / ICFNDS 2021: The 5th International Conference on Future Networks & Distributed Systems, Dec. 2021;

Islamov B., Turdibaeva, M., Yusupov, A. (2022). Methodological Issues of Econometric Estimating Export Gravity Models / Proceedings of International Conference on Future Networks and Distributed Systems (ICFNDS '22), Tashkent State University of Economics, Tashkent, Dec. 15- 16, 285–291;

Johansen, S. (1991). Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models // Econometrica, 59, 1551-1580;

Lucas, R. (1976). Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique // Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy 1, 19-46.

Ramos, F. (2001). Exports, imports, and economic growth in Portugal: evidence from causality and cointegration analysis // Economic Modelling 18: 613-623;

Salahodjaev R., Safarova N., Usmanova N. (2020). Determinants of Tourism Arrivals to Uzbekistan: Evidence from Dyadic Data // Tourism Review International, 24, 251–255;

Sims, C. (1980). Macroeconomics and Reality // Econometrica, 48(1), 1-48;

Sultanova G., Karimova Kh. (2022). Determinants of Fruit and Vegetable Exports through the Gravity Model Approach: In the Case of Uzbekistan // Change Management, 22, 506-574;

Указ (2022) Указ Президента Республики Узбекистан УП-60 от 28.01.2022 г. «О Стратегии развития Нового Узбекистана на 2022-2026 годы»