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ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF THE IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RURAL PROPERTY PRODUCTION

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This article analysis the impact of global climate change on agricultural production based on international scientific research. The study explores how factors such as rising temperatures, changes in precipitation patterns, and water scarcity affect crop yields. In particular, it has been proven that shifts in heat and moisture balance directly influence the growth phases and yield levels of major crops such as wheat, cotton, and maize. Empirical studies conducted in various countries using panel regression, ARIMA, and GARCH models demonstrate that climate change significantly and negatively affects agricultural production. This article emphasizes the importance of conducting similar research under the specific climatic and agronomic conditions of Uzbekistan.

AUTHORS

A.Almuradov

Toshkent Davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti

A.Asrorova

Toshkent Davlat iqtisodiyot universiteti

Tags

# температура# agriculture# сельское хозяйство# qishloq xo‘jaligi# harorat# temperature# урожайность# crop yield# climate change# изменение климата# hosildorlik# модель ARIMA# ARIMA modeli# ARIMA model# iqlim o‘zgarishi# suv tanqisligi.# дефицит воды.# water scarcity

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References

FAO. (2021). The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Making agrifood systems more resilient to shocks and stresses. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4476en p. 37–41.

IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844 p. 1085–1102.

Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333(6042), 616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531.

Nelson, G. C., et al. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867 p. viii–ix.

O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Ekologiya, atrof-muhitni muhofaza qilish va iqlim o‘zgarishi vazirligi. (2022). O‘zbekistonning milliy iqlim hisobotlari. T: Ekologiya vazirligi matbuot xizmati. 23–29-b.

O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Innovatsion rivojlanish vazirligi. (2023). Iqlim o‘zgarishi va suv resurslari: Qishloq xo‘jaligi ishlab chiqarishiga ta’sir tahlili. Toshkent: Innovatsion rivojlanish vazirligi nashriyoti 45–52-betlar.

OECD/FAO. (2023). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2023-en p. 85–92.

Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 106(37), 15594–15598. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106 p. 15596.

World Bank. (2020). Uzbekistan: Strengthening resilience of the agriculture sector to climate change. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/ publication/ documents-reports/documentdetail/ p. 12–18.

FAO. (2021). The State of Food and Agriculture 2021: Making agrifood systems more resilient to shocks and stresses. Rome: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. https://doi.org/10.4060/cb4476en p. 37–41.

IPCC. (2022). Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation, and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009325844 p. 1085–1102.

Lobell, D. B., Schlenker, W., & Costa-Roberts, J. (2011). Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science, 333(6042), 616–620. https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1204531.

Nelson, G. C., et al. (2010). Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/9780896291867 p. viii–ix.

O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Ekologiya, atrof-muhitni muhofaza qilish va iqlim o‘zgarishi vazirligi. (2022). O‘zbekistonning milliy iqlim hisobotlari. T: Ekologiya vazirligi matbuot xizmati. 23–29-b.

O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Innovatsion rivojlanish vazirligi. (2023). Iqlim o‘zgarishi va suv resurslari: Qishloq xo‘jaligi ishlab chiqarishiga ta’sir tahlili. Toshkent: Innovatsion rivojlanish vazirligi nashriyoti 45–52-betlar.

OECD/FAO. (2023). OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2023–2032. Paris: OECD Publishing. https://doi.org/10.1787/agr_outlook-2023-en p. 85–92.

Schlenker, W., & Roberts, M. J. (2009). Nonlinear temperature effects indicate severe damages to U.S. crop yields under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), 106(37), 15594–15598. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0906865106 p. 15596.

World Bank. (2020). Uzbekistan: Strengthening resilience of the agriculture sector to climate change. Washington, DC: World Bank Group. https://documents.worldbank.org/en/ publication/ documents-reports/documentdetail/ p. 12–18.