The industrial sector of Uzbekistan has undergone significant changes over the past two decades, driven by technological innovations. This study aims to assess the impact of these innovations on the region’s industrial growth and to forecast production trends until 2030 using an ARIMA model. The analysis draws upon historical industrial production data from 2000 to 2023, alongside technological adoption indicators. Results indicate that technological advancements have contributed to a substantial increase in industrial output, with a projected 15% growth by 2030. This paper contributes to the broader understanding of regional industrial dynamics and offers practical policy recommendations for sustaining growth through continuous innovation.
№ | Муаллифнинг исми | Лавозими | Ташкилот номи |
---|---|---|---|
1 | Abdullaev K.A. | Senior teacher, PhD | “Department of Macroeconomic Policy and Forecasting” |
№ | Ҳавола номи |
---|---|
1 | Box, G. E. P., & Jenkins, G. M. (1970). Time Series Analysis: Forecasting and Control. Holden-Day. |
2 | Grossman, G. M., & Helpman, E. (1991). Innovation and Growth in the Global Economy. MIT Press. |
3 | Hyndman, R. J., & Athanasopoulos, G. (2018). Forecasting: Principles and Practice. OTexts. |
4 | Romer, P. M. (1990). "Endogenous Technological Change". Journal of Political Economy, 98(5), S71-S102. |
5 | Spechler, M. C. (2000). "Central Asian Economies on Their Way to the Market". Contemporary Economic Policy, 18(3), 276-287. |
6 | Brynjolfsson, E., & McAfee, A. (2014). The Second Machine Age: Work, Progress, and Prosperity in a Time of Brilliant Technologies. W. W. Norton & Company. |
7 | Acemoglu, D., & Restrepo, P. (2018). Automation and New Tasks: How Technology Displaces and Reinstates Labor. Journal of Economic Perspectives, 33(2), 3–30. |