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Inflation expectations error have significant implications for macroeconomic stability, influencing policy effectiveness and market efficiency. This study examines the relationship between key economic indexes — import prices, industrial price indexes, and inflation anchoring metricsand inflation expectation error. By employing a DCC-GARCH model, the study captures the dynamic conditional correlations between these indexes and inflation forecast deviations. The findings highlight the importance of economic indicators in improving inflation predictability while emphasizing the behavioral component of expectation formation.

  • Ўқишлар сони 24
  • Нашр санаси 08-01-2025
  • Мақола тилиIngliz
  • Саҳифалар сони1074-1084
English

Inflation expectations error have significant implications for macroeconomic stability, influencing policy effectiveness and market efficiency. This study examines the relationship between key economic indexes — import prices, industrial price indexes, and inflation anchoring metricsand inflation expectation error. By employing a DCC-GARCH model, the study captures the dynamic conditional correlations between these indexes and inflation forecast deviations. The findings highlight the importance of economic indicators in improving inflation predictability while emphasizing the behavioral component of expectation formation.

№ Муаллифнинг исми Лавозими Ташкилот номи
1 Norkobilov H.E. Assistant Lecturer in the Department of “Green” Economy Tashkent State University of Economics
2 Eldorbekov G.I. Assistant Lecturer in the Department of “Green” Economy Tashkent State University of Economics
№ Ҳавола номи
1 Hommes, Cars, and David Leiser. (2022) Behavioral Economics and Inflation Expectations: Macroeconomics Meets Psychology. Cambridge University Press. p. 16–20. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108482851
2 Coibion, O., & Gorodnichenko, Y. (2020). Inflation Expectations as a Policy Tool? Journal of International Economics, 124, 103297. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jinteco.2020.103297
3 Coibion, O., Gorodnichenko, Y., & Kamdar, R. (2020). Inflation Expectations and Firm Decisions. Quarterly Journal of Economics, 135(1), 165–219
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5 Olivei, G. P. (2002). Exchange Rates and Inflation in Emerging Market Economies. New England Economic Review, 2002(Q1), 17–28
6 Blinder, A. S., Ehrmann, M., Fratzscher, M., De Haan, J., & Jansen, D. J. (2008). Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy: A Survey of Theory and Evidence. Journal of Economic Literature, 46(4), 910–945. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1257/jel.46.4.910
7 Mishkin, F. S. (2007). Inflation Dynamics. International Finance, 10(3), 317–334. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1468-2362.2007.00208.x.
8 Bems, R., Caselli, F., Grigoli, F., Gruss, B., & Lian, W. (2018). Expectations' Anchoring and Inflation Persistence. IMF Working Paper, 2018(280), 1–31. DOI: https://doi.org/10.5089/9781484388846.001
9 Bernanke, B. S. (2007). Inflation Expectations and Inflation Policy. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, 2007(1), 1–66. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1353/eca.2007.0020
10 Tootell, G. M. B. (1998). Globalization and U.S. Inflation. New England Economic Review, 1998(Jul), 21–33
11 Rich, R., & Rissmiller, D. (2000). The Role of Import Prices in the Inflationary Process. Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 6(3), 19–33.
12 National Statistics Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Prices & Indexes (2020-2025). URL: https://stat.uz/en/official-statistics/prices-and-indexes
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