The article considers the possibility of using the least squares method (LSM) for longterm forecasting of the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. There is presented
least squares method for predicting the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. It is
shown that, based on the least-squares method, it is possible to obtain prognostic equations, as
Electrical and Computer Engineering
197
well as coefficients of approximating functions necessary for the formation of these equations.
The results of the analysis of the comparison of linear, hyperbolic, logarithmic, exponential and
quadratic functions on the use of LSMs to predict specific fuel consumption are presented.
Analytical studies are based on statistical data on specific fuel consumption for the period 1990-2016 years by the power system of Uzbekistan. There is shown that the statistical data was
divided into training and control samples, when performing an analysis of comparisons of
algebraic functions. The training sample, which based on prediction equations are obtained
using algebraic functions of various types. The criterion of the least squares method, which is
according for using the statistical data of the control sample in the obtained prognostic
functions, the standard deviations are found. In the end, there has drawn conclusions, based on
the obtained results.
Maqolada elektr energetika tizimlarining holat parametrlarini uzoq muddatga prognoz qilishda
kichik kvadratlar usulini (KKU) qo'llash imkoniyati ko'rib chiqilgan. Elektr energetika tizimlari
holat parametrlarini prognoz qilish uchun kichik kvadratlar usuli keltirilgan. Kichik kvadratlar
usuli yordamida prognoz tenglamalarini hamda ushbu tenglamalarni hosil qilish uchun
approksimaciya funkciyalarining koefficientlarini topish imkoniyati mavjudligi ko'rsatilgan.
Chiziqli, giperbolik, logarifmik, eksponencial va kvadratik funkciyalar yordamida kichik
kvadratlar usulini qo'llash buyicha yoqilg’ining solishtirma sarfini prognoz qilishning tahlili
keltirilgan. Analitik tahlillar O'zbekiston energotizimi bo'yicha 1990-2016 yillar oraliq vaqtdagi
yoqilg’i solishtirma sarfining statistik ma'lumotlarga asosan amalga oshirilgan. Algebraik
funkciyalarni o'zaro solishtirish tahlilini bajarishda statistik ma'lumotlar o'rganiluvchi va
tekshiriluvchi to'plamlarga ajratilganligi ko'rsatilgan. O'rganiluvchi to'plamdagi ma'lumotlar
asosida turli hil algebraik funkciyalarni qo'llanib, prognozlashtirish tenglamalari olingan.
Kichik kvadratlar usulining me'zoniga ko'ra, tekshiriluvchi to'plamning ma'lumotlarini qo'llash
yordamida olingan prognostik funkciyalarning o'rtakvadratik hatoliklari topilgan. Yakunida,
olingan natijalarga asosan hulosalar qilingan.
The article considers the possibility of using the least squares method (LSM) for longterm forecasting of the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. There is presented
least squares method for predicting the parameters of the regime of electric power systems. It is
shown that, based on the least-squares method, it is possible to obtain prognostic equations, as
Electrical and Computer Engineering
197
well as coefficients of approximating functions necessary for the formation of these equations.
The results of the analysis of the comparison of linear, hyperbolic, logarithmic, exponential and
quadratic functions on the use of LSMs to predict specific fuel consumption are presented.
Analytical studies are based on statistical data on specific fuel consumption for the period 1990-2016 years by the power system of Uzbekistan. There is shown that the statistical data was
divided into training and control samples, when performing an analysis of comparisons of
algebraic functions. The training sample, which based on prediction equations are obtained
using algebraic functions of various types. The criterion of the least squares method, which is
according for using the statistical data of the control sample in the obtained prognostic
functions, the standard deviations are found. In the end, there has drawn conclusions, based on
the obtained results.
В статье рассматривается возможность применения метода наименьших
квадратов (МНК) для долгосрочного прогнозирования параметров режима
электроэнергетических систем. Представлен метод наименьших квадратов для
прогнозирования параметров режима электроэнергетических систем. Показано, что на
основе МНК имеется возможность получения прогностических уравнений, а также
коэффициентов аппроксимирующих функций, необходимых для формирования этих
уравнений. Приведены результаты анализа сравнения линейной, гиперболической,
логарифмической, экспоненциальной и квадратической функций по применению МНК для
прогнозирования удельного расхода топлива. Аналитические исследования выполнены на
основе статистических данных удельного расхода топлива за период 1990-2016 гг. по
энергосистеме Узбекистана. При выполнении анализа сравнений алгебраических функций
показано, что статистические данные были разделены на обучающую и контрольную
выборки. На основании обучающей выборки получены уравнения прогнозирования,при
использовании алгебраических функций различных типов. Согласно критерию метода
наименьших квадратов, с помощью применения статистических данных контрольной
выборки в полученных прогностических функциях найдены среднеквадратические
отклонения. На основании полученных результатов сделаны соответствующие выводы.
| № | Author name | position | Name of organisation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Losev D.Y. | инженер | Национального диспетчерского центра Акционерного общества “Национальные электрические сети Узбекистана” |
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|---|---|
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