The article presents an analysis of the use of correlation-regression analysis, which is
based on the methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory in the study of the power
consumption of enterprises with equipment of continuous production. On the basis of the annual
power consumption schedule of the electric steel-smelting shop in a monthly time section,
mathematical models have been developed for the power consumption parameters. And also, on
the basis of statistical data with the use of a mathematical method, mathematical expressions
were obtained for the electric power consumption and the specific consumption for the main
equipment of the electric steel-smelting shop. In order to assess the adequacy of the developed
mathematical models, mathematical models of the total and specific consumption of their power
consumption are compared with actual data. The comparison results show high reliability of the
power consumption modes of the main equipment of the facility in question. The analysis of the
values of forecast errors with low error rates determines the adequacy of the developed
mathematical models of the parameters of power consumption in terms of power consumption
and specific consumption for the main equipment of the electric steel-smelting shop. In this
regard, they can be used to determine the predicted values of the parameters of power
consumption in electric steelmaking equipment.
Maqolada matematik statistika va extimollar nazariyasi usullariga asoslangan korrelyacionregression taxlil usulini uzluksiz rejimda ishlovchi harakterdagi sanoat korhonalari
qurilmalarining elektr energiyasi iste'moli rejimlarini tadqiq qilishda qo'llash taxlili keltirilgan.
Elektrda po'lat eritish cehining yillik yuklama grafigi asosida oylar kesimida elektr energiya
iste'moli parametrlari bo'yicha matematik modellar ishlab chiqilgan. Shu bilan birga statistik
ma'lumotlar yordamida matematik usullarni qo'llash orqali elektrda po'lat eritish cehi
qurilmalari bo'yicha elektr energiya sarfi va solishtirma sarf ko'rsatkichlarini aniqlash
matematik ifodalari olingan. Ishlab chqilgan matematik modellarning adekvatligini baxolash
uchun ularning quvvat sarfining umumiy va solishtirma sarf qiymatlari modellari haqiqiy
ma'lumotlar ko'rsatkichlari bilan taqqoslanadi. Taqqoslash natijalari ishlab chiqilgan
matematik modellar qaralayotgan obe'kt uchun yuqori ishonchlilikni ko'rsatadi. Matematik
modellardagi kichik hatolik elektrda po'lat eritish cehlarining asosiy qurilmalari elektr energiya
parametrlarini bashorat qilishda adekavtlikni harakterlaydi va bu modellarni po'lat eritish
sanoatida elektr energiya iste'moli parametrlarini aniqlashda qo'llash mumkin.
The article presents an analysis of the use of correlation-regression analysis, which is
based on the methods of mathematical statistics and probability theory in the study of the power
consumption of enterprises with equipment of continuous production. On the basis of the annual
power consumption schedule of the electric steel-smelting shop in a monthly time section,
mathematical models have been developed for the power consumption parameters. And also, on
the basis of statistical data with the use of a mathematical method, mathematical expressions
were obtained for the electric power consumption and the specific consumption for the main
equipment of the electric steel-smelting shop. In order to assess the adequacy of the developed
mathematical models, mathematical models of the total and specific consumption of their power
consumption are compared with actual data. The comparison results show high reliability of the
power consumption modes of the main equipment of the facility in question. The analysis of the
values of forecast errors with low error rates determines the adequacy of the developed
mathematical models of the parameters of power consumption in terms of power consumption
and specific consumption for the main equipment of the electric steel-smelting shop. In this
regard, they can be used to determine the predicted values of the parameters of power
consumption in electric steelmaking equipment.
В статье приведен анализ применения корреляционного-регрессионного анализа, который
базируется на методах математической статистики и теории вероятностей при
исследовании режимов электропотребления предприятий с оборудованием непрерывного
характера производства. На основе годового графика электропотребления
электросталеплавильного цеха в месячном временном разрезе разработаны
математические модели по параметрам электропотребления. На основе
статистических данных с применением математического метода получены
математические выражения по расходу электроэнергии в целом и удельному расходу по
основному оборудованию электросталеплавильного цеха. С целью оценки адекватности
разработанных математических моделей выполнено и проведено сопоставление
математических моделей общего и удельного расхода электропотребления с
фактическими данными. Результаты сопоставления показывают высокую
достоверность режимов электропотребления основного оборудования
рассматриваемого объекта. Анализ значений прогнозных ошибок с низкими процентами
погрешности обусловливает сбой адекватности разработанных математических
моделей параметров электропотребления по расходу электроэнергии и удельному
расходу по основному оборудованию электросталеплавильного цеха. В связи с этим их
можно применять при определении прогнозных значений параметров
электропотребления на оборудовании электросталеплавильного производства.
| № | Имя автора | Должность | Наименование организации |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rakhmonov I.U. | dotsent | TDTU |
| 2 | Li K.B. | professor | Чунгнам миллий университети |
| 3 | Niyozov N.N. | Assistent | TDTU |
| № | Название ссылки |
|---|---|
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