66

This research focuses on the key macroeconomic factors that leads to currency depreciation of Uzbek som. Due to some external shocks, current account imbalances, and expansionary monetary policies, Uzbekistan and other regional countries, including Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, have seen significant currency devaluation in recent years. To identify factors that significantly influence exchange rate volatility, such as capital flows, money supply, external debt, and macroeconomic shocks like natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic, the research analyzed the main empirical findings from previous studies. The results indicate that while remittance inflows and capital investment typically support currency appreciation, the national currency is depreciated due to the current account deficit and low level of foreign direct investment. Money supply also led to a decrease in the value of the currency. The study concludes that policy actions should strengthen fiscal discipline, promote investment inflows, and achieve price stability through a strategic monetary system.

  • O'qishlar soni 66
  • Nashr sanasi 30-09-2025
  • Asosiy tilIngliz
  • Sahifalar480-488
English

This research focuses on the key macroeconomic factors that leads to currency depreciation of Uzbek som. Due to some external shocks, current account imbalances, and expansionary monetary policies, Uzbekistan and other regional countries, including Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Armenia, and Azerbaijan, have seen significant currency devaluation in recent years. To identify factors that significantly influence exchange rate volatility, such as capital flows, money supply, external debt, and macroeconomic shocks like natural disasters and the COVID-19 pandemic, the research analyzed the main empirical findings from previous studies. The results indicate that while remittance inflows and capital investment typically support currency appreciation, the national currency is depreciated due to the current account deficit and low level of foreign direct investment. Money supply also led to a decrease in the value of the currency. The study concludes that policy actions should strengthen fiscal discipline, promote investment inflows, and achieve price stability through a strategic monetary system.

Muallifning F.I.Sh. Lavozimi Tashkilot nomi
1 Abduvalieva N.M. Editorial administrative officer Westminster International University in Tashkent
Havola nomi
1 Khan, S.A. (no date). Central Asia: ECONOMIC TRANSITION IN CENTRAL ASIA. Research journal of area study Centre. Available from https://www.asc-centralasia.edu.pk/Issue_63/03-ECONOMIC_TRANSITION.html?utm_ [Accessed 30 May 2025].
2 Kia, A. (2013). Determinants of the real exchange rate in a small open economy: Evidence from Canada. Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, 23 (1), 163–178. Available from https://doi.org/10.1016/J.INTFIN.2012.09.001 [Accessed 30 May 2025].
3 Dinçer, H., Hacıoğlu, Ü. and Yüksel, S. (2017). Determining Influencing Factors of Currency Exchange Rate for Decision Making in Global Economy Using MARS Method. 261–273. Available from https://doi.org/10.4018/978-1-5225-2673-5.CH013 [Accessed 30 May 2025].
4 Berdinazarov, Z. et al. (2019). Determinants of Exchange Rate Fluctuations of Uzbek Sum. Business and Management Studies, 5 (1), 52. Available from https://doi.org/10.11114/BMS.V5I1.4162 [Accessed 30 May 2025].
5 Botzen, W.J.W., Deschenes, O. and Sanders, M. (2019). The Economic Impacts of Natural Disasters: A Review of Models and Empirical Studies. https://doi.org/10.1093/reep/rez004, 13 (2), 167–188. Available from https://doi.org/10.1093/REEP/REZ004 [Accessed 30 May 2025].
6 Nguyen, A.T.N. and Nguyen, H. (2024). Currencies in Turbulence: Exploring the Impact of Natural Disasters on Exchange Rates. IMF Working Papers, 2024 (186). Available from https://doi.org/10.5089/9798400289385.001.A001 [Accessed 30 May 2025].
7 World Bank Group. (2019). Uzbekistan-Toward-a-New-Economy-Country-Economic-Update. Available from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/866501562572675697/pdf/Uzbekistan-Toward-a-New-Economy-Country-Economic-Update.pdf [Accessed 30 May 2025].
8 Kouladoum and Jean-Claude. (2018). External debts and real exchange rates in developing countries: evidence from Chad. MPRA Paper. Available from https://ideas.repec.org/p/pra/mprapa/88440.html [Accessed 30 May 2025].
9 Izvorski, I. et al. (2021). Assessing Uzbekistan’s Transition Country Economic Memorandum. Available from https://documents1.worldbank.org/curated/en/862261637233938240/pdf/Full-Report.pdf?utm_ [Accessed 30 May 2025].
10 Asian Development Bank (2019). Uzbekistan: Asian Development Outlook 2019.
Kutilmoqda