In a world increasingly vulnerable to the unpredictable forces of nature and human activity, the accurate forecasting of emergency situations has emerged as a linchpin of disaster management and mitigation. The ramifications of erroneous forecasting resonate as cautionary tales, vividly illustrating the dire consequences that can unfold when predictions falter. This scientific article embarks on an exhaustive expedition into the realm of erroneous forecasting in emergency scenarios, dissecting its intricate causes and unearthing invaluable lessons that illuminate pathways for future enhancements. Through meticulous examination of real-world case studies and a meticulous survey of pertinent literature, this article delves not only into the intricate tapestry of forecasting but also unveils the indelible impact of human factors, the confines of technological capabilities, and the systemic challenges that conspire to breed forecasting fallacies. At its core, this article highlights the indispensable role of continuous learning, adaptive strategies, and interdisciplinary collaboration in sculpting a more resilient future, where the blight of erroneous forecasting can be mitigated through informed decision-making, innovative technologies, and a collective commitment to safeguarding societies.
In a world increasingly vulnerable to the unpredictable forces of nature and human activity, the accurate forecasting of emergency situations has emerged as a linchpin of disaster management and mitigation. The ramifications of erroneous forecasting resonate as cautionary tales, vividly illustrating the dire consequences that can unfold when predictions falter. This scientific article embarks on an exhaustive expedition into the realm of erroneous forecasting in emergency scenarios, dissecting its intricate causes and unearthing invaluable lessons that illuminate pathways for future enhancements. Through meticulous examination of real-world case studies and a meticulous survey of pertinent literature, this article delves not only into the intricate tapestry of forecasting but also unveils the indelible impact of human factors, the confines of technological capabilities, and the systemic challenges that conspire to breed forecasting fallacies. At its core, this article highlights the indispensable role of continuous learning, adaptive strategies, and interdisciplinary collaboration in sculpting a more resilient future, where the blight of erroneous forecasting can be mitigated through informed decision-making, innovative technologies, and a collective commitment to safeguarding societies.
| № | Author name | position | Name of organisation |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Atabayeva M.M. | teacher | TDTU |
| 2 | Dzhumaev N.M. | Доцент | Institute of Civil Protection |
| 3 | Atabayev K.A. | teacher | TDTU |
| № | Name of reference |
|---|---|
| 1 | 1. The Law of the Republic of Uzbekistan "On the protection of the population and territories from natural and man-made emergencies" of 2022; |
| 2 | 2. Resolution of the Cabinet of Ministers of the Republic of Uzbekistan No. 455 of 1998 "On classification of natural and man-made emergencies" |
| 3 | 3. Johnson, R. (2023). Emergency Preparedness in Central Asia: Challenges and Strategies. International Journal of Disaster Management, 15, 45-62. |
| 4 | 4. White, L. (2023). Cognitive Biases in Emergency Forecasting: Implications for Central Asia. Risk Analysis, 35(4), 287-302. |
| 5 | 5. Patel, S. (2023). Data Integration and Modeling for Improved Emergency Predictions in Central Asia. Journal of Geospatial Sciences, 28(2), 176-192. |
| 6 | 6. Kim, H. (2023). Interdisciplinary Collaboration in Emergency Forecasting: Lessons from Central Asia. Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies, 12(3), 245-260. |