THE IMPORTANCE OF PROBABILITY THEORY APPROACHES IN  EVALUATING THE RETURN PERIOD OF MAXIMUM WATER FLOW  VALUES IN THE AMU DARYA RIVER

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30 May 2025

Main language:Uzbek

THE IMPORTANCE OF PROBABILITY THEORY APPROACHES IN EVALUATING THE RETURN PERIOD OF MAXIMUM WATER FLOW VALUES IN THE AMU DARYA RIVER

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ARTICLE ANNOTATION

This article addresses the issue of analyzing the maximum water flow values of the Amu Darya River using probability methods. The relationship between extreme values and their return periods is determined based on the Gumbel distribution. This approach is crucial for flood risk assessment and the design process of hydraulic structures.

AUTHORS

M.Egamov

Qarshi davlat texnika universiteti

Tags

# Амударья# Amu Darya# Amudaryo# ekstremal qiymatlar# ehtimollik tahlili# Gumbel taqsimoti# qaytish davri# yillik maksimal suv sarfi# gidrologik xavf# statistik modellashtirish# EVT# экстремальные значения# вероятностный анализ# распределение Гумбеля# время возврата# годовой максималный расход воды# гидрологический риск# статистическое моделирование# extreme values# probability analysis# Gumbel distribution# return period# annual maximum water flow# hydrological risk# statistical modeling

Article Identifiers

ROI:

https://eroi.uz/11.0032/A0525-0013

DOI:

Not Available

References

Bezak, N., Brilly, M., & Šraj, M. (2014). Comparison between the Gumbel, Pearson Type III and Generalized Extreme Value distributions in flood frequency analysis. Water Resources Management, 28(7), 2057–2074. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11269-014-0601-5

Coles, S. (2001). An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values. Springer Series in Statistics. London: Springer.

Gumbel, E. J

(1958). Statistics of Extremes. Columbia University Press.

Krysanova, V., Hattermann, F. F., Huang, S., Vetter, T., & Bronstert, A. (2015). Modelling climate and land-use change impacts with SWIM: Lessons learnt and challenges ahead. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 60(7–8), 1440–1454. https://doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2014.925560

Katz, R. W., Parlange, M. B., & Naveau, P. (2002). Statistics of extremes in hydrology. Advances in Water Resources, 25(8–12), 1287–1304. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0309-1708(02)00056-8

Mirzayev, S., & Khakimov, S. (2019). Statistical estimation of extreme water discharges in the Syrdarya and Amudarya rivers using probability distributions. Central Asian Journal of Water Research, 5(1), 45–58.

Tadayon, S. (2005). Water withdrawals for irrigation and water supply in the Amu Darya Basin. U.S. Geological Survey Scientific Investigations Report.

Min, A., & Czado, C. (2010). Bayesian inference for multivariate copulas using pair-copula constructions. Journal of Financial Econometrics, 8(4), 511–546.