Ўтмиш ва келажакдаги иқлимий фарқларнинг дарё ҳавзалари оқим динамикасига таъсирини баҳолаш келажакда дарё ҳавзалари учун барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлигини таъминлаш, шунингдек, иқлим ўзгаришининг экология ва атроф-муҳитга таъсирини камайтиришда муҳим аҳамият касб этади. Ушбу ҳолат бир неча соҳаларда: технология, инфратузилма, сиёсат, иқтисодиёт, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш бўйича шошилинч ва келишилган ҳаракатларни талаб этади. Мақолада дельта ёндашув усули ёрдамида 2030, 2050 ва 2070 йилларда глобал циркуляцияси модели (GCM)ни мувофиқлаштириш сценарийлари, RCP4.5 ва RCP8.5 асосида ёғингарчилик интенсивлиги ўзгаришларнинг Чирчиқ дарёси оқими динамикасига таъсири баҳоланди. Тадқиқот натижаларида Чирчиқ ҳавзасида яқин ва узоқ келажак учун оқим динамикаси ўзгаришларига аниқ далиллар келтирилган. Мазкур тадқиқот иқлим ўзгаришига жавобан Чирчиқ ҳавзасида барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлиги ва озиқ-овқат хавфсизлигини таъминлаш, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш, жамиятнинг ижтимоий даражасини яхшилашда, сув ресурсларини оператив бошқариш механизмини ишлаб чиқиш ва иқтисодий барқарорликни таъминлашга эришишда фойдали маълумот бўлиб хизмат қилади.
Ўтмиш ва келажакдаги иқлимий фарқларнинг дарё ҳавзалари оқим динамикасига таъсирини баҳолаш келажакда дарё ҳавзалари учун барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлигини таъминлаш, шунингдек, иқлим ўзгаришининг экология ва атроф-муҳитга таъсирини камайтиришда муҳим аҳамият касб этади. Ушбу ҳолат бир неча соҳаларда: технология, инфратузилма, сиёсат, иқтисодиёт, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш бўйича шошилинч ва келишилган ҳаракатларни талаб этади. Мақолада дельта ёндашув усули ёрдамида 2030, 2050 ва 2070 йилларда глобал циркуляцияси модели (GCM)ни мувофиқлаштириш сценарийлари, RCP4.5 ва RCP8.5 асосида ёғингарчилик интенсивлиги ўзгаришларнинг Чирчиқ дарёси оқими динамикасига таъсири баҳоланди. Тадқиқот натижаларида Чирчиқ ҳавзасида яқин ва узоқ келажак учун оқим динамикаси ўзгаришларига аниқ далиллар келтирилган. Мазкур тадқиқот иқлим ўзгаришига жавобан Чирчиқ ҳавзасида барқарор қишлоқ хўжалиги ҳосилдорлиги ва озиқ-овқат хавфсизлигини таъминлаш, экология ва атроф-муҳитни муҳофаза қилиш, жамиятнинг ижтимоий даражасини яхшилашда, сув ресурсларини оператив бошқариш механизмини ишлаб чиқиш ва иқтисодий барқарорликни таъминлашга эришишда фойдали маълумот бўлиб хизмат қилади.
Оценка влияния прошлых и будущих климатических различий на динамику стока в речных бассейнах важна для обеспечения устойчивой продуктивности сельского хозяйства в будущем, а также для снижения воздействия изменения климата на окружающую среду. Эта ситуация требует срочных и согласованных действий в нескольких областях: технологии, инфраструктура, политика, экономика, экология и окружающая среда. В исследовании оценивается влияние изменения интенсивности осадков на динамику стока реки Чирчик на основе модели глобальной циркуляции (GCM) для 2030, 2050 и 2070 годов с использованием метода дельта-подхода по сценариям RCP 4.5 и RCP 8.5. Результаты исследования убедительно показывают изменения в динамике стока в бассейне река Чирчик в краткосрочной и долгосрочной перспективе. Данное исследование будет полезным в целях обеспечения устойчивой продуктивности сельского хозяйства и продовольственной безопасности в бассейне реки Чирчик в ответ на изменение климата, а также разработки механизма оперативного управления водными ресурсами для защиты окружающей среды, улучшения социального положения общества и достижения экономической стабильности в регионе.
Assessing the impact of the past and future climatic differences on the runoff dynamics in river basins is important in view to ensure sustainable agricultural output in the future, as well as to reduce the impact of climate change on the environment. This situation requires urgent and concerted action in several areas: technology, infrastructure, policy, economics, ecology and environment. The study assesses the impact of changing precipitation intensity on the flow dynamics of the Chirchik River based on the Global Circulation Model (GCM) for 2030, 2050 and 2070 using the delta approach method under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The study findings convincingly show changes in flow dynamics in the Chirchik River basin in the short and long term perspectives. This study will be useful information to ensure sustainable agricultural productivity and food security in the Chirchik basin in response to climate change, as well as to develop a mechanism for operational water management to protect the environment, improve the social status of society and achieve economic sustainability in the region.
| № | Muallifning F.I.Sh. | Lavozimi | Tashkilot nomi |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gafforov H.S. | texnika fanlari falsafa doktori (PhD), dotsent | «Toshkent irrigatsiya va qishloq xo‘jaligini mexanizatsiyalash muhandislari instituti» milliy tadqiqot universiteti, «Gidromeliorativ tizimlardan foydalanish» kafedrasi |
| 2 | Ungalov A.N. | «Mis sanoati klasterlari va iqtisodiyotni innovatsion rivojlantirish» boshqarmasi bosh mutaxassisi | O‘zbekiston Respublikasi Innovatsion rivojlanish vazirligi |
| 3 | Bao A.. | PhD, professor, Shinjon masofadan zondlash markazi rahbari | Xitoy Fanlar Akademiyasi, Shinjon ekologiya va geografiya instituti |
| 4 | Olimjonov N.O. | magistrant | «Toshkent irrigatsiya va qishloq xo‘jaligini mexanizatsiyalash muhandislari instituti» milliy tadqiqot universiteti, «Gidromeliorativ tizimlardan foydalanish» kafedrasi |
| № | Havola nomi |
|---|---|
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