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RADAR-SATELLITE SYNTHESIS FOR EARLY PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOWS AND ASSESSMENT OF THEIR CONSEQUENCES IN MOUNTAINOUS REGIONS OF CENTRAL ASIA

Field of Science:Environmental Science (miscellaneous)Management, Monitoring, Policy and LawNature and Landscape ConservationWater Science and TechnologyGeography, Planning and Development
National field of science (HAC):03.00.10 — Ecology03.00.13 — Soil science04.00.04 — Hydrogeology and engineering geology05.09.04 — Water supply. Sewerage. Construction systems for water body protection06.03.01 — Forest plantations. Breeding, seed production and urban greening. Agroforestry and establishment of protective forests05.10.02 — Safety in emergencies. Fire, industrial, nuclear and radiation safety06.01.02 — Land reclamation and irrigated farming06.01.03 — Agro-soil science and agrophysics06.01.10 — Land management, cadastre and land monitoring06.03.02 — Forest inventory and forest mensuration. Forest science and silviculture. Forest fires and their control06.03.03 — Introduction of medicinal plants, cultivation technology and agro-pharmaecology11.00.01 — Physical geography11.00.03 — Land hydrology. Water resources. Hydrochemistry11.00.04 — Meteorology. Climatology. Agrometeorology11.00.05 — Environmental protection and rational use of natural resources16.00.04 — Veterinary pharmacology and toxicology. Veterinary sanitation, ecology, zoo hygiene and veterinary-sanitary examination05.09.07 — Hydraulics and engineering hydrology
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Hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring

Hydrometeorology and environmental monitoring

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ARTICLE ANNOTATION

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The paper explores the feasibility of applying radar-satellite synthesis for operational quantitative forecasting of flash flood and debris flow phenomena in mountain and piedmont areas. The study focuses on the Zaamin district of the Jizzakh region (northern slopes of the Turkestan Range), an area characterized by high torrential activity. The methodology is based on constructing intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves from satellite data for short-lived convective storms. In this study, the IDF curve is applied in an event-based framework — as a relationship between intensity and duration for a specific rainfall episode, excluding recurrence analysis and probabilistic characteristics. This approach is designed for the operational assessment of convective rainfall parameters and runoff formation conditions in ungauged mountain basins. It was found that rainfall intensity is well approximated by a second-degree polynomial, reflecting the rapid development and decay of the storm. To verify the model, a documented flash flood case with a discharge of Q = 2 m³/s was analyzed. Integrating the IDF curve over a storm duration of approximately 2.5 hours yielded the cumulative rainfall depth. Based on this, the average flood discharge was calculated for a conditional watershed area of A = 10-12 km², resulting in Q ≈ 1.66 m³/s, which demonstrates high convergence with actual observations. The proposed methodology can serve as a foundation for developing new monitoring tools, including virtual gauging stations.

AUTHORS

Science ID: PTV-0525-0003

Science ID: MTN-0525-0110

Science ID: MFR-0525-0034

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# синтез# район# расчет# зондирование# кривая# дистанционное# селе-паводковые# явления# радарно-спутниковый# интенсивности# осадков# idf# стока# зааминский

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